Amateur Investors Stock Market Analysis

September Outlook

2006-09-02T12:06:00.000-07:00

One thing to keep watch closely over the next week or two is the Volatility Index (VXO) which is very close to nearing its 52 week low around the 10 level. In the past when the VXO has dropped to around 10 (point A) this has been followed by some type of correction (points B to C) in the S&P 500. Currently the S&P 500 is only about 14 points away from its early May high near 1325 and if it's able to rise back to its May high in the near term, and the VXO drops back to around 10, then this will likely be followed by a correction in the major averages at some point in September.

You can read our complete market analysis at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Sep_2_06.htm

Weekly Stock Market Analysis 8/26/06

2006-08-26T15:43:00.000-07:00

The Nasdaq has developed a trading range between its 200 Day EMA (blue line) near 2175 and its 50 Day EMA (green line) near 2120. We will likely see the Nasdaq break out of this trading range before much longer. If the Nasdaq can rise above its 200 Day EMA near 2175 then I would expect its next area of upside resistance would occur in the 2195 to 2235 range. The 2195 area (point A) corresponds to the Nasdaq's 50% Retracement Level (calculated from the April high to the July low) and is also where it stalled out at in early July. Furthermore the 2235 area (point B) corresponds to the Nasdaq's 61.8% Retracement Level and is also where it stalled out at in early June after attempting to rally from oversold conditions. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq were to break below its 50 Day EMA near 2120 then I would expect to see an eventual retest of the mid July low near 2010.

You can read our complete market analysis at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_26_06.htm

Stock Market Analysis for 8/19/06

2006-08-19T09:36:00.000-07:00

Although we did see an impressive rally this week one thing to keep a close eye on is the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX is quickly approaching a level (black line) that has eventually signaled a nearing sell off during the past year below a value of 11. If the VIX continues to drop and falls below the 11 level within the next week or so this could be a signal of a nearing sell off. Also the last time the VIX rose rapidly (points A to B) this was then followed by a quick drop (points B to C) back in June which was then followed by a substantial sell off in the S&P 500 (points D to E). Thus keep a close watch on the VIX over the next week or so because if it drops below 11 this could be a signal of a nearing sell off as we move into the month of September. Also keep in mind historically September has been the worst performing month for the market by a long shot with the Dow being up only 37% of the time since 1900.

You can read our complete market analysis at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_19_06.htm

Stock Market Analysis for 8/12/06

2006-08-13T11:42:00.000-07:00

The S&P 500 is exhibiting a potential Double Bottom pattern although the 2nd bottom was not as low as the 1st bottom so it's not a classic Double Bottom pattern from a technical point of view. So far the S&P 500 has held support at its 200 Day EMA (green line) just above 1260 and if it's going to maintain its Double Bottom pattern it will need to continue to do so next week. If the S&P 500 were to break below the 1260 level then it may eventually retest the 1220 to 1225 range which corresponds to the lows made in mid June (1220)and mid July (1225).

You can read our complete market analysis at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_12_06.htm

Stock Market Analysis for August 6th

2006-08-06T11:37:00.000-07:00

There is a Federal Reserve meeting next week so expect an increase in daily volatility in the major averages. Meanwhile if we take a look at a longer term chart of the S&P 500 so far it's acting similar to what occurred in the Spring and Summer of 2004. Back in 2004 the S&P 500 peaked in March and then developed a similar potential Double Bottom pattern. However the S&P 500 then stalled out in June which was eventually followed by more selling pressure before the real bottom occurred in August (points A to B). Thus it will be interesting to see if the S&P 500 takes a similar path in the weeks ahead.

Our complete Stock Market Analysis can be found at
http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_5_06.htm

Weekend Market Analysis for July 29th

2006-07-29T07:44:00.000-07:00

Since early May the Nasdaq has been making a series of lower lows (points L) as it has remained in a steady downtrend. Also you may notice that the previous two bounces from oversold conditions ended up stalling either at the Nasdaq's 50 Day EMA (blue line) or 200 Day EMA (green line). If the Nasdaq is able to rally back to its 50 Day EMA which is currently near 2130 it will be interesting to see what happens this time around as there are two possibilities. Either the Nasdaq will stall out at its 50 Day EMA and then come under more selling pressure with an eventual retest of its low made just a few weeks ago near 2010 or it will rise above its 50 Day EMA leading to a move up to its 200 Day EMA near 2190.

You can read our complete market analysis for July 29th at
http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_29_06.htm

Weekend Analysis for July 22, 2006

2006-07-22T11:19:00.000-07:00

Historically most major market bottoms have occurred in the late Fall so we still may have a ways to go before a true bottom occurs. It's possible that the Nasdaq will eventually drop back to one of its its longer term Retracement Levels (38.2%, 50% or 61.8%) calculated from the Fall 2002 low before we see a major bottom occur. Currently the 38.2% Retracement Level is around 1900 which also corresponds to the April 2005 low (point A). Meanwhile the 50% Retracement Level is around 1750 which is very close to the August low of 2004 (point B). Finally the worst case scenario would be for the Nasdaq to drop back to its 61.8% Retreacement Level which is at 1600. Meanwhile until a true bottom is reached look for any oversold rally to encounter strong resistance at the Nasdaq's 40 Weekly EMA (blue line) which is currently around 2200.

You can read our complete market analysis at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_22_06.htm

Weekend Market Analysis for July 15th

2006-07-16T11:00:00.000-07:00

In the near term the market is becoming rather oversold so we could see a brief oversold bounce occur next week. The overall pattern right now in the Nasdaq looks similar to what occurred in 2004 when the Nasdaq peaked in January and didn't make a bottom until 6 months later in August (points H to I). Also as you can see the Nasdaq had two oversold rallies lasting from 3 to 6 weeks (points J to K) as well before actually making a real bottom in August of 2004. Thus as mentioned above we could see a brief oversold rally develop before much longer if the 2004 pattern repeats itself.

You can read our complete Market Analysis for July 15th at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_15_06.htm

Stock Market Analysis for July 8th

2006-07-08T12:28:00.000-07:00

For those watching the price of Crude Oil it appears it has developed one of two possible chart patterns. One could say the price of Crude Oil has developed a bullish Double Bottom pattern and may now consolidate for a few weeks before making another significant move higher which may have a negative affect on the market.

Meanwhile one could also argue the price of Crude Oil is developing a bearish Double Top pattern as well which could eventually lead to a significant sell off. If this occurred then this may have a positive impact on the market.

To read our complete Market Analysis click on the link at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_8_06.htm

Weekend Stock Market Analysis for July 1st

2006-07-01T13:55:00.000-07:00

The Nasdaq has rallied over 100 points since making a short term bottom in mid June but has two important upside resistance levels which may come into play over the next few weeks. The first upside resistance area is at the Nasdaq's 50 Day EMA (blue line) near 2190 while the second area is at its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 2210. Thus there is a strong possibility the current oversold rally in the Nasdaq may eventually stall out somewhere in the 2190 to 2210 range either next week or the week after. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq does stall out at its 50 Day EMA around 2190 in the near term and begins to come under some selling pressure look for initial support at its 20 Day EMA (purple line) near 2145.

To read our complete stock market analysis click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_1_06.htm

Weekend Market Analysis for 6/24/06

2006-06-24T13:00:00.000-07:00

Next week we have a Federal Reserve meeting and also it will be the end of the 2nd Quarter so I expect we will see an increase in daily volatility starting next Wednesday which will continue through Friday.

The Nasdaq has been in a short term trading range after the big move upward seven trading days ago and has encountered resistance at its 20 day EMA (blue line) near 2145 while finding support just above the 2100 level. Next week I would look for one of two things to occur. If the Nasdaq can rise above the 2145 level then it may quickly rally back to either its 50 Day EMA (green line) near 2200 or its 200 Day EMA (purple line) just below the 2220 level. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq breaks below the 2100 level the look for it to retest the low made a few weeks ago near 2065.

To read our complete Market Analysis for this week click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisJune_24_06.htm

Weekend Stock market Analysis for June 17th

2006-06-17T18:30:00.000-07:00

After nearly six weeks of selling we finally got a decent bounce this week which began on Wednesday as the market had become very oversold. A longer term weekly chart of the Dow shows that at least in the near term it has found support at its 50% Retracement Level (calculated from the October 2004 low to the May 2006 high) near 10700. Now the question is can the Dow follow through to the upside over the next few weeks or will this latest bounce from oversold conditions fizzle out and eventually lead to more selling pressure.

To read our complete market analysis for this week click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_17_06.htm

Weekend Stock Market Analysis for June 10th

2006-06-10T12:11:00.000-07:00

The major averages have been in a correction during the past five weeks. The Dow has dropped around 900 points or 7.8% since peaking in early May and failed to hold support at its 40 Weekly EMA (blue line) this week. If the Dow remains under more selling pressure the next area of support appears to be at its 50% Retracement Level (calculated from the October 2004 low to its most recent high) near 10700. The 10700 level is also where the Dow found support at in the late part of 2005 into the early part of 2006 as well. If the Dow fails to hold support at the 10700 level then the next downside support area would be just below 10500 which corresponds to its 61.8% Retracement Level and upward sloping trend line (brown line) originating from the October 2004 low.

Meanwhile if the Dow attempts to bounce from oversold conditions next week look for its first level of resistance in the 11000 to 11200 range. The 11000 area is where the Dow's falling 20 Day EMA (blue line) is nearing and is also where the 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the early May high to the most recent low) is close to as well. Meanwhile the 11200 area is where the Dow's 50 Day EMA (green line) resides at and is also near its 50% Retracement Level.

To read our complete Weekly Market Analysis Report click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisJune_10_06.htm

Weekend Market Analysis for June 3, 2006

2006-06-03T06:27:00.000-07:00

The Nasdaq has rallied just over 100 points since making a short term bottom seven trading days ago and has risen back to its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 2230. At this point one of two things may occur with the Nasdaq in the short term. The first scenario would be for the Nasdaq to rise above its 200 Day EMA leading to a move up to its 50 Day EMA (blue line) near 2260 which is its next level of resistance above 2230. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the Nasdaq to stall out near its 200 Day EMA and then come under more selling pressure leading to an eventual retest of its low made just over a week ago near 2135.

Meanwhile if we look at a longer term chart of the Nasdaq the 2135 level is a critical support area for the Nasdaq as it corresponds to its 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the August 2004 low to its most recent high) and also is along its upward sloping trend line (brown line) originating from the August 2004 low. If the Nasdaq were to fall below the 2135 level then its next area of support would either be at its 50% Retracement Level near 2060 or at its October 2005 low near 2030. Thus it will be very important for the Nasdaq to hold support near the 2135 level in the weeks ahead to keep its longer term upward bias intact.

To read our complete Weekend Analysis you can click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_3_06.htm

Weekend Stock Market Analysis (5/20/06)

2006-05-21T08:47:00.000-07:00

The last week and a half hasn't been pretty as strong selling pressure has occurred in the major averages. The Dow has fallen over 600 points since peaking seven trading days ago near the 11650 level and has broken below its 50 Day EMA (blue line) and upward sloping trend line (brown line) originating from the October 2005 low. At this point one of two things may occur next week in the Dow. If the Dow can hold support at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 11100 then we could see a brief oversold rally develop. However if the Dow is unable to hold support near the 11100 level and continues lower then its next area of support would be around the 10950 area which coincides with its 200 Day EMA (green line) and 50% Retracement Level.

The Nasdaq which topped out five weeks ago near 2375 fell around 200 points during the past seven trading days and is now well below its 40 Weekly EMA (blue line). However despite the Nasdaq getting hammered it still remains above its longer term upward sloping trend line (black line) which originates from the low made in August of 2004. The longer term outlook for the Nasdaq will likely depend on whether it can hold support along its upward sloping trend line or not over the next week or two which appears to be in the 2130-2150 range. If the Nasdaq were to break below its upward sloping term trend line then that could eventually lead to a much larger drop back to its October 2005 low around the 2030 level (point A) at some point.

For our complete Market Analysis you can click on the following link at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_May_20_06.htm

Amateur Investors Mid Week Analysis for May 16th

2006-05-16T16:40:00.000-07:00

The major averages have become rather oversold especially the Nasdaq however so far we haven't seen much of a bounce develop. The Dow is still holding support above its 50 Day EMA (blue line) and longer term upward sloping trend line (black line) which is currently around 11200. As I mentioned over the weekend as long as the Dow can hold support at or above its upward sloping trend line then its upward bias will remain intact.

The Nasdaq has been acting the worst of the three major averages and has dropped below its 40 Weekly EMA (green line) near 2238. I still think we could see an oversold bounce develop in the Nasdaq before much longer with it potentially rising back to its 10 Weekly EMA near 2290. However if a bounce doesn't develop and the Nasdaq continues lower instead then look for its next area of support at its longer term upward sloping trend line (black line) near 2150.

One reason for the poor performance in the Nasdaq is tied to the Semiconductors which have been in a downtrend every since peaking in early January near 560. Historically when the Semiconductor Index (SOX) is acting poorly the Nasdaq will usually have problems as well. The SOX has now dropped back to a key area at its 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the September 2004 low to the January 2006 high) near 480. If an oversold bounce is going to develop in the Nasdaq the SOX will have to hold support near the 480 level and begin to rally. Meanwhile if the SOX is unable to hold support near the 480 level and continues lower then its next area of support would be at its 50% Retracement Level just below 460.

To Signup for our "Free" Weekly Market Analysis Reports you can vist us at http://www.amateur-investor.net

Weekly Stock Market Analysis (5/6/06)

2006-05-06T13:09:00.000-07:00

The Dow and S&P 500 made new 52 week highs this week as there was some weakness in the price of Crude Oil. As we have seen in the past when the price of Crude Oil has dropped this has allowed for the Dow to rally. The most recent correction in the price of Crude Oil started in mid April which has coincided with a rally in the Dow.

In the near term the price of Crude Oil has a key support level at its 50 Day EMA near the 69 level and the question is will it hold support at this level or not in the days ahead. At this time there are two possible scenarios for the price of Crude Oil. If the price of Crude Oil fails to hold support at its 50 Day EMA then it could eventually drop back to its 200 Day EMA near 64 which would likely allow for the Dow to continue higher much like we saw last February when the Crude Oil broke below its 50 Day EMA. Meanwhile the second scenario would be for the price of Crude Oil to hold support at its 50 Day EMA which would then be followed by a rally eventually leading to a new high much like occurred in July of 2005. In this case the Dow topped out in July of 2005 and then came under some selling pressure.

For our complete report including several charts please click on the following link at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisMay_6_06.htm

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis for 4/30/06

2006-04-30T21:42:00.000-07:00

The Dow and S&P 500 were basically flat this week while the Nasdaq came under some selling pressure. A longer term chart of the Dow shows that it has rallied back to a previous upside resistance area near 11400 which is where it stalled out three separate times in 2000 and 2001 after attempting to bounce from oversold conditions. The question at this point is will the Dow be able to break solidly above the 11400 leading to a move back to its all time high made in early 2000 near 11750?

As we have seen in the past the future price of Crude Oil may determine whether the Dow eventually rallies back to its all time high or not. The price of Crude Oil which broke above a previous upside resistance area just above 70 a few weeks ago pulled back some this week after rallying over $12 since mid March. However it appears the price of Crude Oil is finding support near its previous resistance level which also coincides with its 20 Day EMA as well.

Our complete stock market analysis can be found at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_April_29_06.htm

Amateur Investors

Amateur Investors Stock Chart of the Week

2006-04-26T17:10:00.000-07:00

A stock from our current Top 100 Stocks to Watch List which has completed the right side of a 2 year Cup is COEUR D ALENE (CDE). CDE now needs to develop a Handle over the next few weeks to complete a favorable Cup and Handle pattern.

Remember Cup and Handle patterns can lead to explosive moves in a stock when it breaks out. For example ZORAN (ZRAN) broke out of its Cup and Handle pattern on April 20th and then made a significant upward move on Tuesday April 25th and gained over $6 in one day.

ZRAN was featured by us in our Daily Breakout Report for April 20th at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Daily_Breakout_Report_4_20_06.htm

Amateur Investors

Weekend Analysis for April 22nd, 2006

2006-04-22T21:08:00.000-07:00

Despite the continued rise in the price of Crude Oil the major averages rallied this week although most of the gains occurred on Tuesday. A longer term chart of the price of Crude Oil shows that it has been holding support at its 40 Weekly EMA since the late part of 2003 while remaining in an up trend. Meanwhile this week the price of Crude Oil rose above a significant resistance area near 70 and it looks like this could lead to a move up to the 80 level at some point. As we have seen in the past when the price of Crude Oil has made a significant move higher this has generally had an adverse affect on the Dow. Thus if we see another extended period of higher Crude Oil Prices with the price of Crude Oil eventually rising into the 80's this would likely have a negative affect on the Dow.

Our complete Market Analysis for this weekend can be found at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_April_22_06.htm

Amateur Investors Wekeend Stock Market Analysis for 1/15/05

2005-01-15T13:58:00.000-08:00

The recent rise in the price of Crude Oil may be weighing on the market. Any additional rise in the price of Crude may lead to more downside pressure in the major averages. For more discussion you can read our latest Market Analysis below.

Weekend Market Analysis for 1/15/05

Amateur Investors

Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis

2005-01-08T09:50:00.000-08:00

So far the major averages are holding support near their 50 Day EMA's and have become somewhat oversold on a short term basis. For our complete market analysis clink on the link below.

Weekend Market Analysis for January 8th, 2005

Amateur-Investors.Com

Amateur Investors Mid Week Market Analysis

2005-01-05T16:16:00.000-08:00

Not a good start to 2005 as the major averages have sold off accompanied by large volume. Quite a few of the leaders since the both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 bottomed in August of 2004 have been hit hard of late. For a more detailed analysis of the major averages you can read our latest Market Analysis by clicking on the link below.

Amateur Investors Mid Week Analysis for January 5th

Amateur Investors