Saturday, June 28, 2014

Volatility Remains Very Low

Volatility is low but that may change in July.  Our latest article at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_28_2014.htm

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Ronaldo Saves the United States

Thanks to a stupid play by the Ghana goalkeeper and a goal by Ronaldo the US advanced to the knockout round in the World Cup.  If Ghana had won the game the US wouldn't had made it to the next round.

Since I have followed soccer since the early 1970's when I began playing as an 8 year old and continued to play competitively through college I have a few random thoughts.

1.  The US is finally beginning to catch up with the rest of the world with regards to skill level.  Today's team would probably easily defeat the 1994 US World Cup team although they probably wouldn't admit it.

2.  In the future I would like to see an attacking style of soccer versus a more defensive style of play.   Klinsmann is playing to his team's strength which is a more defensive style as the US is still not quite to the skill level that it needs to be more aggressive.  Hopefully in the next decade the skill level will finally match that of Europe and South America which will lead to a more aggressive style of attack which in the long run is probably what Klinsmann wants to trend towards if he remains the US coach.

3.  Can the US beat Belgium?  Belgium is a defensive minded team so one would expect a low scoring game.  If the US can pull one out vs Belgium then they would likely play Argentina in the Quarterfinals.

4.  Unfortunately for the teams left Messi has had an outstanding World Cup and appears to be on a mission to carry his team on his back.  If the US does beat Belgium and gets to play Argentina it would be a very difficult game to win.         

5,  I have watched most of the World Cup games so far and my final four teams in the Semi's would be
Netherlands vs Colombia and Argentina vs Germany.

6.  I will go out on a limb here and pick Colombia as the winner of the 2014 World Cup so we shall see what happens.  

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Implied Volatility at an all time Low

The Implied Volatility (VXO) is back at an all time low.  What does that mean for the market?  Our analysis is at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_21_2014.htm

Saturday, June 07, 2014

When will the Rubber Band Break?

The market is stretched like a rubber band so how far can it go.  Read our latest post at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_7_2014.htm

Sunday, June 01, 2014

NYSE Margin Debt Analysis