Weekend Market Analysis for July 29th

Since early May the Nasdaq has been making a series of lower lows (points L) as it has remained in a steady downtrend. Also you may notice that the previous two bounces from oversold conditions ended up stalling either at the Nasdaq's 50 Day EMA (blue line) or 200 Day EMA (green line). If the Nasdaq is able to rally back to its 50 Day EMA which is currently near 2130 it will be interesting to see what happens this time around as there are two possibilities. Either the Nasdaq will stall out at its 50 Day EMA and then come under more selling pressure with an eventual retest of its low made just a few weeks ago near 2010 or it will rise above its 50 Day EMA leading to a move up to its 200 Day EMA near 2190.



You can read our complete market analysis for July 29th at
http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_29_06.htm

Weekend Analysis for July 22, 2006

Historically most major market bottoms have occurred in the late Fall so we still may have a ways to go before a true bottom occurs. It's possible that the Nasdaq will eventually drop back to one of its its longer term Retracement Levels (38.2%, 50% or 61.8%) calculated from the Fall 2002 low before we see a major bottom occur. Currently the 38.2% Retracement Level is around 1900 which also corresponds to the April 2005 low (point A). Meanwhile the 50% Retracement Level is around 1750 which is very close to the August low of 2004 (point B). Finally the worst case scenario would be for the Nasdaq to drop back to its 61.8% Retreacement Level which is at 1600. Meanwhile until a true bottom is reached look for any oversold rally to encounter strong resistance at the Nasdaq's 40 Weekly EMA (blue line) which is currently around 2200.















You can read our complete market analysis at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_22_06.htm

Weekend Market Analysis for July 15th

In the near term the market is becoming rather oversold so we could see a brief oversold bounce occur next week. The overall pattern right now in the Nasdaq looks similar to what occurred in 2004 when the Nasdaq peaked in January and didn't make a bottom until 6 months later in August (points H to I). Also as you can see the Nasdaq had two oversold rallies lasting from 3 to 6 weeks (points J to K) as well before actually making a real bottom in August of 2004. Thus as mentioned above we could see a brief oversold rally develop before much longer if the 2004 pattern repeats itself.

















You can read our complete Market Analysis for July 15th at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_15_06.htm

Stock Market Analysis for July 8th

For those watching the price of Crude Oil it appears it has developed one of two possible chart patterns. One could say the price of Crude Oil has developed a bullish Double Bottom pattern and may now consolidate for a few weeks before making another significant move higher which may have a negative affect on the market.



Meanwhile one could also argue the price of Crude Oil is developing a bearish Double Top pattern as well which could eventually lead to a significant sell off. If this occurred then this may have a positive impact on the market.

To read our complete Market Analysis click on the link at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_8_06.htm

Weekend Stock Market Analysis for July 1st

The Nasdaq has rallied over 100 points since making a short term bottom in mid June but has two important upside resistance levels which may come into play over the next few weeks. The first upside resistance area is at the Nasdaq's 50 Day EMA (blue line) near 2190 while the second area is at its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 2210. Thus there is a strong possibility the current oversold rally in the Nasdaq may eventually stall out somewhere in the 2190 to 2210 range either next week or the week after. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq does stall out at its 50 Day EMA around 2190 in the near term and begins to come under some selling pressure look for initial support at its 20 Day EMA (purple line) near 2145.

To read our complete stock market analysis click on the link below.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_1_06.htm